In 2020, China's total output of ternary materials will be 215000 tons, up 10.5% year on year. It is estimated that the output of ternary materials will be 295000 tons in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 37.1%. In 2020, China's total output of LiFePO4 will be 147000 tons, up 61.2% year on year. It is estimated that the output of LiFePO4 will be 240000 tons in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 63.3%.
In 2020, China's total output of ternary materials will be 215000 tons, up 10.5% year on year. Affected by the epidemic situation in the first half of the year, the market operating rate was low in the first quarter, and the output declined seriously year on year. In the second quarter, ternary material enterprises basically resumed construction, but the downstream consumer market has not yet recovered, and the output is still low. In the second half of the year, with the recovery of new energy market, the output of ternary materials increased month by month. In the fourth quarter, the new energy vehicle market was hot, and the rush to load at the end of the year, coupled with the strong consumer demand and the sharp rise in power demand, the output of ternary materials increased significantly. Only from September to December, the output exceeded 20000 tons, and the annual output was lower in the first half of the year and higher in the second half of the year.
Auto companies have gradually digested the decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles. Coupled with the activities of new energy going to the countryside and the listing of low-end model Hongguang mini, the demand of low-end market independent of subsidies has increased significantly. In the whole year, five enterprises produced more than 15000 tons, with CR10 accounting for 70% and Cr5 accounting for 44.8%. In December 2020, China's total output of ternary materials was 29000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 157.1% and a month on month increase of 3.3%, the largest year-on-year increase since 2020.
In 2020, the total production capacity of ternary materials has reached 608000 tons, an increase of 230000 tons compared with that in 2019, with obvious overcapacity and fierce market competition. At the same time, ternary material manufacturers are gradually binding to the downstream head battery enterprises, and the customer structure is relatively concentrated. Once the downstream battery customers increase or decrease production on a large scale, if the upstream raw material production plan is not adjusted in time, there will be a shortage of supply or a large accumulation of inventory.
The output of high nickel ternary materials will increase, while the output of series 5 and 6 ternary materials will increase slightly. The annual output of ternary materials in 2021 is expected to be 295000 tons, up 37.1% year on year.
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