Some analysts believe that since 2017, affected by the subsidy policy, the installed capacity share of LiFePO4 has continued to decline. However, with the implementation of the new subsidy policy and the promotion of new battery technology, many manufacturers have begun to seize the market through the low-cost advantage of LiFePO4, and the reversal market of LiFePO4 may continue.
With the overall recovery of the automobile market, since July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles have been booming, and the power battery has ushered in double growth.
Lithium iron phosphate "making a comeback"
In October, China's power battery output totaled 9.86gwh, a year-on-year increase of 47.9%. Among them, the output of ternary battery was 5.5gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 39.6%, accounting for 56% of the total output; the output of lithium iron phosphate battery was 4.3gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 63%, accounting for 43.8% of the total output. The growth rate of lithium iron phosphate output exceeded that of ternary battery again, and the market share continued to increase.
From 2015 to 2019, the production and sales scale of new energy vehicles in China increased from 331100 to 1206000, with an annual growth rate of more than 35%. Driven by the sales of new energy vehicles, the demand for upstream power lithium battery products has increased sharply, and the installed capacity of the products has increased from less than 16gwh in 2015 to 62.2gwh in 2019, an increase of nearly three times.
Although the overall trend of the industry is upward, from the perspective of market share, in the past five years, LiFePO4 battery products have experienced "high development and low turnover".
The reasons for the above changes are mainly due to the adjustment of subsidy policies in the past. All along, subsidy policy is very important for the development of new energy vehicle market.
Due to the influence of subsidy policy, since 2016, the growth rate of lithium iron phosphate shipment began to be significantly lower than that of ternary lithium battery.
New technology "mending the short board"
In addition to the cost advantage, the new battery technology promotion brings about the improvement of battery life, which also adds a "new fire" to the popularity of LiFePO4.
In March 2020, BYD released a brand-new lithium iron phosphate battery product "blade battery", claiming that it has higher stability than ternary battery under the condition of increasing energy density, which was once considered as the "terminator" of ternary battery.
Iron lithium "new space"
Under different scenarios, China's lithium iron phosphate battery shipment will reach 217-532gwh by 2025, corresponding to a compound growth rate of 35% - 56% in six years. Among them, under the neutral assumption, it is predicted that the lithium iron phosphate battery shipment will reach 343gwh by 2025. Specifically, by 2025, the global sales of new energy vehicles will reach 15 million, and the lithium iron phosphate penetration rate will be close to 20%. The corresponding power battery shipment volume is about 188gwh, the battery end market space is about 171.3 billion yuan, and the corresponding lithium iron phosphate cathode material market space is about 24.2 billion yuan.
According to the calculation, the replacement scale of LiFePO4 to lead-acid battery field will reach 82gwh by 2025. In addition, the application of LiFePO4 in base station, energy storage and electric ship will reach 10 GWH, 28 GWH and 35 GWH respectively.
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