Recently, the "new energy vehicle industry development plan (2021-2035)" which is eagerly expected by the market has been officially announced, which not only benefits the new energy vehicle industry, but also drives the demand for metals such as cobalt in the upstream.
On the one hand, the plan points out that by 2025, the sales volume of new energy vehicles will reach about 20% of the total sales volume of new vehicles. 5% lower than the draft for comments on December 3, 2019. Subsidies for new energy vehicles will decline in 2019, and the new energy vehicle industry will be hit hard by the epidemic situation in 2020. Although the new energy vehicle market is gradually warming up, the production and sales of new energy vehicles from January to September are 738000 and 734000, respectively, down 18.7% and 17.7% year-on-year.
On the other hand, by 2025, the average power consumption of new pure electric passenger cars in China will be reduced to 12.0 kWh / 100km.
In addition, the plan points out to promote the development of the whole value chain of power batteries. Enterprises are encouraged to improve the support capacity of lithium, nickel, cobalt, platinum and other key resources. Establish and improve the modular standard system of power battery, accelerate the breakthrough of key manufacturing equipment, and improve the process level and production efficiency. Improve the recycling system of power battery recycling, cascade utilization and recycling, and encourage co construction and sharing of recycling channels. Establish and improve the management system of power battery transportation and storage, maintenance, safety inspection, decommissioning and recycling, and strengthen the whole life cycle supervision.
It is worth noting that the plan said to speed up the construction of charging and replacing infrastructure. This year, the power exchange mode is coming fiercely and ushering in unprecedented development opportunities. As NIO introduces battery rental service and adopts baas mode, the purchase price will be reduced by 70000 Yuan, and the separation mode of vehicle and electricity will be officially opened. GEELY Technology Group has signed more than 1000 power stations nationwide.
CICC believes that the further improvement of intelligence and charging and swapping infrastructure is expected to strengthen the trend led by consumer demand. "We believe that the intelligence led by the new force and Tesla will effectively guide consumer cognition. At the same time, the complete charging and swapping infrastructure will also continue to alleviate the anxiety of consumers. Combining with the parity, we will further strengthen the medium and long-term growth trend of new energy vehicles led by consumer demand."
SMM believes that the comprehensive planning of China's new energy vehicle market and more reasonable planning of the sales volume of new energy market in 2025 and after can also drive the future demand of power lithium batteries, in which cobalt and lithium raw materials account for a high proportion in lithium batteries. Therefore, the demand for cobalt and lithium raw materials will maintain a high growth rate in the next five years and in the long run.
Among them, optimistic expectations are considered as follows:
1. Local subsidy policies have increased significantly;
2. The demand for battery replacement is increasing;
3. The output of China's "new forces of car making" may exceed that of Tesla.
Pessimistic expectation consideration:
1. The national subsidy policy will decline;
2. The policy support of battery replacement mode is not enough.
In the short term, SMM neutral expects that in 2021, China's new energy vehicle production will drive a year-on-year growth rate of nearly 31% to 17000 metal tons; in 2022, China's new energy vehicle production is expected to drive a year-on-year growth rate of nearly 35% to 23000 metal tons.
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