Under the influence of the epidemic in 2021, it is difficult for cobalt raw material supply and logistics to quickly return to normal. The growth rate of the new energy market is expected to be objective on the demand side. The 5g replacement wave in the digital market continues, and the overall expectation is optimistic. In addition, the mode of industrial chain integration changes the pricing method. In the future, with the supply and demand of cobalt market gradually reaching equilibrium, the fluctuation range of cobalt price will gradually narrow.
Although the new energy vehicle market in the first half of 2020 was affected by the epidemic, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in February was 16000, a new low in three years, but after experiencing the most downturn, the sales volume of new energy vehicles gradually recovered, and since July, the sales volume has continued for five months, achieving positive growth year-on-year.
From January to November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.119 million and 1.109 million, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, 9.1% lower than that from January to October, and a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, ending the downward trend.
In December, the production scheduling plans of all automobile enterprises have increased. In addition to the rising demand of private consumers in December and the rush to install new energy commercial vehicles at the end of the year, it is expected that the production and sales of new energy vehicles will continue to grow in December, with the annual sales reaching about 1.32 million. The rapid development of new energy vehicle market has driven the demand for raw materials of cobalt lithium upstream.
In the second quarter, affected by the epidemic, the price of electrolytic cobalt showed a "V" trend, with the lowest price of 232500 yuan / ton, a new low since mid-August 2019. In the third quarter, the price bottomed out and went up again, reaching 27550 yuan / ton. In the fourth quarter, the price of electrolytic cobalt showed a downward trend. As of today, the average price of electrolytic cobalt was 264000 yuan / ton, up 31500 yuan / ton from the lowest level since the beginning of the year.
Contact Person: Mrs. Sandy Chung
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