Considering that high terminal demand and tight supply will lead to the price rise of lithium carbonate in 2021. In addition, the situation of excess supply of lithium iron phosphate will improve next year, and the market demand for power, energy storage and small power will increase significantly. It is expected that the price of lithium iron phosphate will continue to grow, and the conduction speed of the increase may increase.
In the second half of the year, the growth of iron lithium batteries mainly came from the increase of supporting passenger cars. It can also be seen from the catalogue recommended by the Ministry of industry and information technology that the number of new passenger cars with iron lithium batteries in 2020 is much higher than that of last year. Driven by a number of best-selling models, the installed capacity of iron lithium battery reached 4.7gwh in November, up 91.6% year-on-year, and the proportion of installed capacity rose to 44% from 13% in February. It is expected to account for 25% of all electric passenger cars in December.
In the past years, the proportion of lithium-ion batteries in passenger cars decreased year by year. However, with the decline of subsidies in 2019, due to the low cost, strong safety and improved battery technology of lithium iron battery, lithium iron battery will return to the stage of passenger car market, and the number of new models supporting lithium iron battery will increase in 2020. It is estimated that lithium iron phosphate battery will account for 11% of the pure electric passenger car market in 2020.
In 2020, the price of Ferro lithium will fluctuate around the cost price for a long time. In the first half of the year, the demand of terminal power market will weaken. Ferro lithium basically relies on energy storage orders. The market competition will be fierce, and the cost reduction and price reduction of battery factories will be large. In addition, in the first half of 2020, the price of lithium carbonate is in a downward range, and the price of lithium iron is in a straight line decline.
In the fourth quarter, the price of lithium carbonate increased by nearly 13000 yuan / ton. In addition, the cost of iron lithium phosphate increased due to seasonal reasons, and the cost pressure of iron lithium increased. Considering the small profit margin of iron lithium factory, iron lithium enterprises adjusted the price one after another. However, due to the lower willingness of downstream battery enterprises to increase the price of raw materials, the price rise was transmitted to the downstream slowly. The price of iron and lithium basically rose in mid and late November and mid-December. This week, as the price of lithium carbonate rose too high, it was difficult for iron lithium enterprises to bear the cost pressure, and the price was raised in advance on the 30 day, and the price rose by 3000-4000 yuan / ton.
At present, new energy vehicles are the trend of the global automobile market. Since the second half of 2020, more and more pure electric passenger vehicles are equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries. SMM predicts that the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries in new energy vehicles will be 40% - 45% in 2021. How much will the replacement of ternary batteries by iron lithium affect the demand for cobalt lithium in China's power market in the future?
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